Scenario
Initial gut reaction (optional)
Record your quick estimate before the structured steps.
Scenario Brief
Review the data below before starting your structured forecast (~2 min read).
Step 1: Base Rate
Start with what typically happens before you adjust.
Required field
Step 2: Distinguishing Details
Identify what moves risk up or down from the outside-in rate.
Required field
Step 3: Final Adjustment
Set your final probability and explain your reasoning.
Required field
Results
Review your path and refine if needed.
Final probability
Gut reaction
Outside-in rate
Adjustment
Forecasting journey
Chart summary updates as you enter estimates.
Structured forecasts beat gut reactions because they force explicit assumptions.
Learning Debrief
What You Just Learned
- Anchor with outside-in rates before adjusting for details.
- State your final probability clearly and defend the path to it.
- Document how each step changed your estimate.
Applying This to Cyber Risk
Use structured forecasts to explain risk without relying on gut feel.
Material Breach Probability
Combine industry outside-in rates with your controls and exposure to land on a defensible annual probability.
Vulnerability Exploitation Window
Start with a public exploit rate, then adjust for internet exposure, patch cadence, and adversary interest.